London - Global oil demand growth is expected to slow from 2025 as fuel efficiency improves and the use of electrified vehicles increases but is unlikely to peak in the next two decades, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
The Paris-based IEA, which advises Western governments on energy policy, said in its annual World Energy Outlook for the period to 2040 that demand growth would continue to increase even though there would be a marked slowdown in the 2030s.
The agency’s central scenario - which incorporates existing energy policies and announced targets - is for demand for oil to rise by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) on average every year to 2025, from 97 million bpd in 2018. Demand is then seen increasing by 0.1 million bpd a year on average during the 2030s to reach 106 million bpd in 2040.“There is a material slowdown after 2025, but this does not lead to a definitive peak in oil use,” the IEA said, citing increased demand from trucks and the shipping, aviation and petrochemicals sectors. Oil use in passenger cars is, however, seen peaking in the late 2020s as drivers switch to electric vehicles.