London - Although it is unwise to draw large conclusions based on league table results from a single quarter, one point which does stand out is that the volume of refinancings crept up considerably in the last three months compared to previous quarters.
Total refinancings across all sectors - M&A, PPPs and renewables - amounted to USD 15.7bn (EUR 13.8bn) across 48 deals in Q1 2019, versus USD 9.7bn across 36 deals in Q1 2018. Given this only relates to one quarter, of itself this is not that exciting, but it does reflect a wider trend. Last year refinancings totaled USD 66.8bn, against USD 59.1bn in 2017 and USD 42.3bn in 2016.
Here below key data points and a link to the full European league tables filled by Inframation and SparkSpread:
•In Q1 2019, total volumes for debt and equity across all sectors amounted to USD 37.4bn – versus exactly the same figure in Q1 2018. But M&A and greenfield volumes declined YoY – suggesting that refinancings are raising the overall volumes;
•One of the biggest declines was in secondary PPPs – just USD 663m of deals were completed in the latest quarter, 300% less year-on-year;
•The greenfield space also saw a decline. Just 12 PPPs worth USD 2.3bn closed in 1Q19 across Europe, versus USD 7.6bn the year before. Volumes are half what they were in 2016;
•The UK has been hit hard by Brexit and its politically anti-PPP consensus. Just one PPP, worth USD 180m, closed in the last three months, versus 14 worth USD 2.43bn in 2016;
•Public bonds are back in vogue – some USD 7.5bn of these deals were transacted in the first quarter, versus just USD 3.5bn in 1Q18 and USD 2bn in 1Q17.